Napier AI index: money laundering in the UK reached 5.16% of GDP

The UK’s money laundering losses have declined as a share of the economy, but remain substantial. The Napier AI / AML Index 2026–2027, produced by regtech provider Napier AI with GlobalData, estimates that the UK lost GBP 154.83 billion to money laundering in 2025, equivalent to 5.16% of GDP. The figure was 5.53% in 2024. The UK moved up ten places in the index, which covers 42 markets.

Compliance costs fall, while AI savings remain untapped

UK spending on anti-money laundering (AML) compliance fell by 7.7%, from GBP 6.37 billion to GBP 5.88 billion. However, an estimated GBP 3.08 billion in potential savings from using AI in compliance has yet to be realised. This is the sixth-largest opportunity among the 42 markets assessed.

The index identifies three main UK financial crime typologies: cross-border account control linked to arms trafficking; the use of people as money mules, linked to exploitation and human trafficking; and purchases of high-value goods using proceeds from illicit trade and counterfeiting.

Regulatory obligations continue to shape AML spending. Meeting regulatory requirements was the leading AML investment priority for 64% of institutions. Another 20% prioritised new technology, while 12% focused on hiring and training. At the same time, 68% of financial crime professionals said their AML systems can support AI’s data requirements.

Greg Watson, CEO of Napier AI, said conflicts and changes in sanctions regimes create gaps that criminals can exploit. He said countries cannot afford to become complacent.

How the UK compares with other markets

The UK ranked ahead of France, in 31st place, and Germany, in 34th. It was behind Spain (3rd), Italy (9th) and the Netherlands (19th). Germany and France spent roughly 4.5 and 3.4 times as much on compliance as the UK, respectively, while recording lower losses as a share of GDP.

Ireland ranked 30th, with losses rising from 4.28% to 4.48% of GDP. Among Commonwealth markets, the UK trailed Canada (2nd), Australia (15th) and New Zealand (20th), but ranked ahead of Singapore (27th), India (33rd) and South Africa (37th).

Data and explainable AI

The index estimates that USD 3.05 trillion could be recovered globally if every assessed market matched the AML performance of the strongest markets.

Dr Janet Bastiman, Napier AI’s Chief Data Scientist and the index lead, said that higher compliance spending alone is not the answer. Better detection and data supported by AI can give teams a clearer view of risk. She added that AI must be explainable, with every automated decision open to regulatory audit and assigned to a human decision-maker.